Coal-fired generation plants in the U.S. are facing significant challenges as a result of emerging environmental regulations and other soft conditions in the power and gas markets. Compliance decision-making under these conditions is a complex problem that involves comparisons of mostly capital-intensive options (such as installation of pollution control equipment or replacement with a new gas combined-cycle plant) under multiple uncertain factors. The staggered and uncertain regulatory timeline and requirements, potential future climate policy that may involve penalties or restrictions on CO2 emissions, and uncertainty over whether the current soft power prices will continue complicates compliance planning. This presentation shares the findings from a recent economic study conducted by Brattle economists on projected coal plant retirements in the U.S. Specifically, the presentation will cover the following topics:
Key factors affecting the retirement/retrofit decisions for coal units
Announced and additional projected coal plant retirements by region
Description of environmental compliance alternatives and their costs
Potential implications of coal plant retirements for U.S. gas demand and power prices
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